The archive at a glance

Each card answers for one technique. Added up, they answer a question none of them answers alone: how many trading techniques survive controls, and where do the rest die?

Audited claims

325

956 records

One per technique × market × exit rule

The extra records are re-runs after fixes to the engine — nothing was deleted

Ideas that cleared all six

across 6 measurements

Out of 182 distinct ideas tested

The same technique at neighbouring parameters is one idea measured many times, not many discoveries

Where most of them die

costs

97 of 319

The control that kills the most techniques

Added up, the verdicts say at which point trading techniques fail

Bar for a claim

4.54%

per trade

What a technique has to deliver in crypto to be assertable

It rises as the archive grows, because publishing more claims is testing more hypotheses. The instrument itself separates from 0.69% on synthetic data

Where techniques die

319 of the 325 claims did not clear the six controls. The order is the protocol's — cheapest first, most expensive last — and each control only kills what the earlier ones let through.

see the 90 at invariance →see the 97 at costs →see the 70 at placebo →see the 37 at benchmark →see the 3 at out of sample →see the 22 at multiple testing →

The verdicts

Of the 325 claims audited, 6 cleared the six controls, 91 came back without an answer, and 228 did not clear.

PASSED6
INCONCLUSIVE91
FAILED228

The multiple-testing count, family by family

One claim in twenty passes by pure chance. Without this column, one PASSED among 47 is misleading on its own. Each family has its own number of claims tested and its own selection effect — which is why the count is never added across them.

family	claims	passed	expected	survive
chart patterns	47	0	2.35	—
candlesticks	22	0	1.10	—
momentum	21	0	1.05	—
one-off	14	1	0.70	1
stops	13	2	0.65	0
volatility	11	0	0.55	—
fibonacci	10	0	0.50	—
adaptive indicators	9	0	0.45	—
position sizing	9	0	0.45	—
transcripts	7	1	0.35	0
volume	7	0	0.35	—
round two	6	0	0.30	—
forex	4	1	0.20	0
selection	2	0	0.10	—

When a new report lands, we will tell you

The archive grows whenever a new technique goes through the six controls — passing or not.

See the 325 claims, one by one →