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The 22 claims that died at multiple testing

Control 6 of 6 · how many versions were tested

What this control does
We counted how many versions of the same idea were tested before this one was published.
What failing it means
There were many. Publishing only the best of many versions is the same as flipping a coin repeatedly and reporting only the heads — and the result was not good enough to survive that discount.

The six run cheapest first and most expensive last, and each one only kills what the earlier ones let through — so these 22 had already survived the 5 controls before it.

22 of 22

FAILED

Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (10, no filter)

A noisy market demands a slower trend; a market that moves in a straight line allows any speed, because there is no false reversal to fear. Adjusting the speed to the noise on every bar — accelerating when price advances without backing up, braking when it oscillates — lets the line use the fastest trend the current conditions allow, and still not be penetrated by the erratic movement that would cause an unwanted turn. It is the best of the two worlds a fixed-period average forces you to choose between.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED· the verdict changed

100-period channel breakout

A break of the high forces anyone short to cover, and that feeds the move: entering on the break of the level catches the trend from the start, without a moving average's lag.

cryptoholds 5 bars
FAILED

20-day breakout on 1.5× volume

A breakout without volume is a trap: price pierces the high, everyone piles in, and the move dies because there was no money behind it. Doubled volume is the confirmation that an institution is on the other side.

cryptoholds 20 bars
FAILED

Bullish/Bearish engulfing

The engulfing shows one side taking control of the fight in a single stroke, and it is the most reliable reversal pattern in price action — with no indicator at all, only price.

cryptoholds 20 bars
FAILED· the verdict changed

Moving average crossover (20/200)

The moving-average crossover identifies the trend's turn in time to get into it: buying the upward cross and selling the downward one captures the main move and keeps you off the wrong side of the market. You hold until the opposite cross.

cryptoholds 10 bars
FAILED

0.382 retracement (13% swing filter)

Price does not move in a straight line: after an advance it gives back a predictable fraction of the way before continuing. That fraction is not just any fraction — it is the ratio found in the nautilus shell, the pyramid of Giza and the arrangement of leaves — and buying exactly at it is buying at the point where the move starts again.

cryptoexits when the technique says
FAILED

0.382 retracement (8% swing filter)

Price does not move in a straight line: after an advance it gives back a predictable fraction of the way before continuing. That fraction is not just any fraction — it is the ratio found in the nautilus shell, the pyramid of Giza and the arrangement of leaves — and buying exactly at it is buying at the point where the move starts again.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

0.618 retracement (8% swing filter)

Price does not move in a straight line: after an advance it gives back a predictable fraction of the way before continuing. That fraction is not just any fraction — it is the ratio found in the nautilus shell, the pyramid of Giza and the arrangement of leaves — and buying exactly at it is buying at the point where the move starts again.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Golden Section Compass signal (3% filter, 5-day reversal)

The market's turns do not happen at just any moment: the distance in time from one bottom to the next projects, by the golden ratio, the day on which the next change of direction begins. Knowing the day, you only wait for price to confirm — and the confirmation is simple, a close above the week's high.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Resistance at the 34th-day price (8% filter)

The numbers in the series mark not only a move's duration but its prices. In a long advance, the price on the 34th day stops being just another point along the way and becomes the level where the correction stops — and buying there is buying at the support the move itself built.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Colby's 2-day rules (exit as the negation of the entry)

Shortening the directional movement calculation to two days, and accepting as a buy signal both a positive directional reading and a rising average index, turns a filter indicator into a complete system — one that stays profitable for decades and returns more than buying and holding.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Hochheimer Directional Movement (DM14, with stop confirmation)

Comparing how much of each bar fell outside the previous one, upwards and downwards, identifies the market's direction well enough to trade on it alone — no trend, no oscillator, no filter. Requiring price to reach for the high of the crossover day before reversing the position removes the crossovers that never become a move, at the cost of a later entry.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Moving average crossover (20/50) · exit at a target of 7.5 × average true range of 20

A trend technique delivers its result despite the trades that turn against it, not because of them. Cutting each trade as soon as price moves far enough from its own best point takes the loss before the technique itself notices the turn — and what remains is better than having no stop at all, provided the level adapts to volatility instead of being a fixed amount.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Moving average crossover (20/50) · exit by 3% of the extreme

A trend technique delivers its result despite the trades that turn against it, not because of them. Cutting each trade as soon as price moves far enough from its own best point takes the loss before the technique itself notices the turn — and what remains is better than having no stop at all, provided the level adapts to volatility instead of being a fixed amount.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Moving average crossover (20/50) · exit by 3% of the extreme

A trend technique delivers its result despite the trades that turn against it, not because of them. Cutting each trade as soon as price moves far enough from its own best point takes the loss before the technique itself notices the turn — and what remains is better than having no stop at all, provided the level adapts to volatility instead of being a fixed amount.

cryptoexits when the technique says
FAILED

Moving average crossover (20/50) · exit by standard deviation f=1

A trend technique delivers its result despite the trades that turn against it, not because of them. Cutting each trade as soon as price moves far enough from its own best point takes the loss before the technique itself notices the turn — and what remains is better than having no stop at all, provided the level adapts to volatility instead of being a fixed amount.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Moving average crossover (20/50) · exit by standard deviation f=3.2

A trend technique delivers its result despite the trades that turn against it, not because of them. Cutting each trade as soon as price moves far enough from its own best point takes the loss before the technique itself notices the turn — and what remains is better than having no stop at all, provided the level adapts to volatility instead of being a fixed amount.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Moving average crossover (20/50) · exit on a move of 10 × average true range in one day

A trend technique delivers its result despite the trades that turn against it, not because of them. Cutting each trade as soon as price moves far enough from its own best point takes the loss before the technique itself notices the turn — and what remains is better than having no stop at all, provided the level adapts to volatility instead of being a fixed amount.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Harmonic Gartley (ratios, 3% tolerance)

Harmonic patterns have a higher win rate than the classic patterns, they give very precise entry conditions and a high reward-to-risk ratio. They work because Fibonacci retracements are used by many traders, and that visibility makes the reactions likelier.

cryptoexits at stop or target
FAILED

40-day average by the direction of the line · entry only in high volatility (2.5σ)

Not every trade a trend system signals is worth taking. Waiting for the market to show signs of activity — a move that is large relative to its recent normal — before entering avoids getting into still markets, where price has no direction and losses are small and frequent.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Volatility system (2 × average true range of 40)

A move larger than the market's normal agitation is not noise: it is the start of a direction. Measuring that agitation with the average true range and requiring price to exceed it by a margin gets you into the breakout that matters and ignores the to-and-fro that leads nowhere.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Volume spike as reversal (4× of 20)

When volume explodes in a single day, it is because everyone formed the same opinion at the same time and acted together — and then there is nobody left to keep pushing price. The spike does not say how large the reversal will be; it says the current move is spent: trading against the spike day captures the turn.

cryptoholds 10 bars