Control 5 of 6 · does it come back in the pieces?

The 3 claims that died at out of sample

What this control does

We cut the data into pieces — halves of the universe, more liquid coins against less liquid ones, and four slices of time — and checked whether the result came back in each of them.

What failing it means

It did not come back. A real edge shows up again in several pieces; a coincidence shows up only where it was found.

The six run cheapest first and most expensive last, and each one only kills what the earlier ones let through — so these 3 had already survived the 4 controls before it.

3 of 3

FAILED

Variable-period moving average (5–30)

The size of the price changes can govern the average's period: when the market turns more volatile, a shorter period follows price closely; when the changes are small or volatility is steady, the period is lengthened to slow the line down. The same average then serves both regimes, instead of forcing a choice between them.

cryptoexits when the technique says

INCONCLUSIVE

Double top / Double bottom

Two attacks on the same level that fail show the level will not give way; breaking the valley between them confirms the turn.

cryptoholds 10 bars

INCONCLUSIVE

Rectangle

The consolidation between a flat ceiling and a flat floor is accumulation; the breakout releases the pent-up move.

cryptoholds 10 bars