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The 37 claims that died at benchmark

Control 4 of 6 · against buying and holding

What this control does
We compare it against simply buying and holding for the same stretch of time, with no rule at all.
What failing it means
Sitting still paid more. The technique takes work, demands attention, and delivers less than doing nothing.

The six run cheapest first and most expensive last, and each one only kills what the earlier ones let through — so these 37 had already survived the 3 controls before it.

37 of 37

FAILED

Adaptive RSI (14, direct constant)

Varying the calculation period need not be confined to a trend formula: any momentum indicator that moves within a known range can be turned into a smoothing constant, and then governs the line's speed. A high reading means more trend and allows a fast line; a low reading means more noise and demands a slow one. The same indicator once used to measure exhaustion becomes a thermometer for speed.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Adaptive stochastic (2–30/3, 20/80)

Varying the calculation period need not be confined to a trend formula: the period of any technique can be adaptive. A fixed-window stochastic measures exhaustion against a range that may be far too wide or far too narrow for the moment; adjusting the window to the market's noise means the overbought and oversold reading is taken against the range that actually matters now.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Dynamic Momentum Index (14/5/10, 30/70)

A fixed-period oscillator always measures the same number of days, whether the market is still or convulsing — and so it arrives late when volatility spikes and fidgets for nothing when volatility falls. Swinging the number of calculation days around a pivot period, according to how current volatility compares with its own recent average, means the overbought and oversold reading is taken over the horizon the moment calls for. And the same mechanism serves to change the period of any technique.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (10, 0,1σ filter)

A noisy market demands a slower trend; a market that moves in a straight line allows any speed, because there is no false reversal to fear. Adjusting the speed to the noise on every bar — accelerating when price advances without backing up, braking when it oscillates — lets the line use the fastest trend the current conditions allow, and still not be penetrated by the erratic movement that would cause an unwanted turn. It is the best of the two worlds a fixed-period average forces you to choose between.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

McGinley Dynamic (10, k=0.6)

An ordinary moving average treats every departure of price the same way. Making the step depend on the distance between price and the line itself lets the average adjust on its own to how far the market has strayed from it — closing the gap quickly when it has fallen behind, and resisting when price is merely oscillating around it.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Variable-period moving average (5–30)

The size of the price changes can govern the average's period: when the market turns more volatile, a shorter period follows price closely; when the changes are small or volatility is steady, the period is lengthened to slow the line down. The same average then serves both regimes, instead of forcing a choice between them.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED· the verdict changed

RSI oversold/overbought (21/25/80)

What has fallen too far tends to come back and what has risen too far tends to correct: entering as price leaves each extreme captures the reversal from the start. It works above all in a sideways market, where price spends most of its time.

cryptoexits when the technique says
FAILED

0.618 retracement (13% swing filter)

Price does not move in a straight line: after an advance it gives back a predictable fraction of the way before continuing. That fraction is not just any fraction — it is the ratio found in the nautilus shell, the pyramid of Giza and the arrangement of leaves — and buying exactly at it is buying at the point where the move starts again.

cryptoexits when the technique says
FAILED

Elliott by the wave oscillator (5/35, n=20, trigger 0.25)

Elliott waves are acknowledged to be hard to apply because they depend on the eye of whoever is counting. Replacing the visual count with a two-average oscillator and a handful of state rules makes the five-wave structure identifiable without judgement — and you trade precisely the two legs where the theory says the movement is, the third and the fifth, staying out of the fourth.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Bollinger Bands (20/2σ)

Price spends 95% of the time inside the bands, so touching them means being statistically cheap or dear. The band adjusts itself to volatility — widening in an agitated market and narrowing in a calm one — which avoids the false signal a fixed threshold gives when volatility changes.

forexholds 10 bars
FAILED

Inverted cup with handle

The mirror image of the cup, announcing a decline.

forexholds 10 bars
FAILED

Inverted descending scallop

The mirrored variant of the cup-and-handle in a downtrend.

cryptoholds 10 bars
FAILED

Rising wedge

An advance that loses range is an advance without conviction: it breaks downwards.

cryptoholds 10 bars
FAILED

Rounding top

The slow turn at the top is institutional distribution.

forexholds 10 bars
FAILED

Three falling peaks

Each attempt fails earlier than the last: the uptrend is over.

forexholds 10 bars
FAILED

Triple bottom

Three failures at the same floor prove that selling is exhausted.

forexholds 10 bars
FAILED

Triple top

Three failures at the same ceiling prove that buying is exhausted.

cryptoholds 10 bars
FAILED

Chande Momentum Oscillator (14/-40/40)

The smoothing that makes the RSI stable also swallows part of the move and leaves the indicator rarely reaching the extremes. Summing raw gains and losses, without smoothing, gives that move back: the oscillator shows more extremes, and so marks more clearly the points where price has stretched far enough to snap back.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Momentum divergence (12/26/9, by peaks of the indicator)

Momentum is a leading indicator: when price makes a new high but momentum does not follow, the advance is losing strength, and price tends to follow momentum's direction rather than its own. The wider the divergence, the likelier the turn — and the longer the period over which it forms, the larger the reversal it announces.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Parabolic Directional (0.02–0.2, DM14)

A stop that creeps towards price on every bar extracts a trend's profits well, but pays dearly for always being in the market: it also reverses the position when there is no trend at all. Requiring directional movement to agree with the side before entering means reversals against the dominant direction are no longer taken, and the system stands aside instead of trading the noise.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

StochRSI (14/14/20/80)

Any indicator can be turned into a stochastic without adding lag, simply by putting its own value where price would go. Applied to the RSI, this fixes the RSI spending long stretches without touching the classic thresholds: instead of asking whether it is high in absolute terms, you ask whether it is high relative to where it has itself been.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Wait for a better price by 1 × average true range of 20 (window 5, 80-day average)

A trend system's signal arrives after price has already moved, and taking it means paying dearly. Waiting a few days for a pullback against the signal's direction gets a better price without abandoning the trade — and the maximum window guarantees no good trend is lost to stubbornness.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Colby's 2-day rules (literal exit, with precedence)

Shortening the directional movement calculation to two days, and accepting as a buy signal both a positive directional reading and a rising average index, turns a filter indicator into a complete system — one that stays profitable for decades and returns more than buying and holding.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Hochheimer Directional Movement (DM14, immediate entry)

Comparing how much of each bar fell outside the previous one, upwards and downwards, identifies the market's direction well enough to trade on it alone — no trend, no oscillator, no filter. Entering as soon as the indicators cross captures the whole move: if the signal is reliable, waiting for confirmation only costs a worse price.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Moving average crossover (20/50) · exit by 3 × average true range of 10

A trend technique delivers its result despite the trades that turn against it, not because of them. Cutting each trade as soon as price moves far enough from its own best point takes the loss before the technique itself notices the turn — and what remains is better than having no stop at all, provided the level adapts to volatility instead of being a fixed amount.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Moving average crossover (20/50) · exit by Parabolic

A trend technique delivers its result despite the trades that turn against it, not because of them. Cutting each trade as soon as price moves far enough from its own best point takes the loss before the technique itself notices the turn — and what remains is better than having no stop at all, provided the level adapts to volatility instead of being a fixed amount.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Moving average crossover (20/50) · exit by standard deviation f=2.06

A trend technique delivers its result despite the trades that turn against it, not because of them. Cutting each trade as soon as price moves far enough from its own best point takes the loss before the technique itself notices the turn — and what remains is better than having no stop at all, provided the level adapts to volatility instead of being a fixed amount.

forexexits when the technique says
FAILED

Belt hold

Opening at one extreme and closing far away shows one side deciding at once.

cryptoholds 10 bars
FAILED

Belt hold

Opening at one extreme and closing far away shows one side deciding at once.

forexholds 10 bars
FAILED

Hammer / Hanging man

The long lower shadow shows sellers pushed the price down and were rejected: the reversal has begun.

forexholds 10 bars
FAILED

Harami cross

Harami with a doji: indecision inside the previous body is a stronger reversal signal.

forexholds 10 bars
FAILED

Morning / Evening doji star

The star with a doji in the middle is the stronger version of the three-candle reversal.

cryptoholds 10 bars
FAILED

On neck

A bounce that dies at the previous low shows the decline continues.

cryptoholds 10 bars
FAILED

Separating lines

Opening at the same price in the opposite direction confirms the trend continues.

forexholds 10 bars
FAILED

Three inside up/down

A harami confirmed by the third candle removes the false signal.

forexholds 10 bars
FAILED

Tweezer top/bottom

Two extremes at the same price mark support or resistance tested and honoured.

forexholds 10 bars
FAILED

Volume-weighted MACD (12/26, signal 0.2)

An ordinary moving average treats every day as equal, when the heavy-volume days are precisely the ones that carry the market's decision. Weighting each close by its volume brings the average closer to the price at which real money traded — and the resulting crossover arrives on time more often.

cryptoexits when the technique says