FAILED

40-day average by the direction of the line · exit by 10σ volatility with re-entry at ¼

A one-day move far larger than normal is risk, not opportunity: exiting on it cuts exposure to the worst of a price shock without waiting for it to become a loss in the account. And because trend systems live off the few very good trades, going back in as soon as the agitation passes recovers the tail the exit would have cost.

Measured in crypto — Binance spot · 540 pairs, delisted ones included · 0.2% per round trip

Net per trade

+1.92%

after fees

The fee is charged on both legs: every trade pays to open and pays to close.

Died at

invariance

the result is not physically plausible

Worst drawdown

−57%

1,786 days underwater

How far the account fell below its own best previous moment.

Timeframe

1 day

The time grid this was measured on. The same technique on a coarser or finer grid is a different measurement, and can earn a different verdict.

invariance
costs
placebo
benchmark
out of sample
multiple testing

Equity curve

Risking 1.0% per trade, marked to market every day — not only when a trade closes. The line at 1.0 is the capital it started with.

At its worst the account was worth 57% less than its own best previous moment, and it spent 1,786 days below that peak.

The technique against chance

Same number of trades, same holding time, same assets — only the dates were drawn at random.

The average trade and the typical one

The mean sits above the median: the lottery signature — the typical trade loses and a rare handful pays for everything.

What was measured

We coded the rule exactly as it is described and let it trade on its own from 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-28. It found trades in 540 coins, 49,643 in total. Each one enters and exits at the price that existed on that day — the program never sees what comes next, which is the most common mistake people make testing strategies at home. Wherever the description was ambiguous we took the reading least favourable to the technique; whatever was left open is stated in the hypothesis, at the foot of this page.

How many of those trades actually count

Only 29 of the 49,643. Cryptocurrencies rise and fall almost in unison, so the same rule fires on dozens of coins on the same day — and that is one bet repeated, not dozens of different bets. Counting them all separately is the trick that makes a bad test look impressive.

What it paid, before any deductions

+2.12% per trade. This is the number the technique claims, and the only one on this page that has not yet been through a single control.

Why it did not pass — it died here · where the result came from

We look at where the result came from: whether it is spread across the trades or packed into a handful of them. It concentrated. That is the shape of a lottery: the typical trade loses, and a rare handful pays for everything. Anyone following the rule for real would face a long run of losses before any gain, and would almost certainly quit before it arrived. To give the measure: 71% of the profit came from the top 5% of trades, and the same technique with its dates shuffled would concentrate 50%. The control fails above 50%.

What would have happened to the money

Risking 1.0% of capital per trade — the most widely taught rule — across the whole period: The capital would have ended at 3.12× what it started with. At its worst the account was worth 57% less than its own best previous moment, and it spent 1,786 days below that peak. In none of the 12 paths tested did it fall to less than half of what it started with.

The account would not fit every signal

65% of the trades had to be turned down: by the time they appeared, the money was already tied up in other positions. That matters because the average return per trade the technique claims is computed over trades that nobody could have taken all of.

What this result does NOT say

For an edge to be assertable here it would have to reach 4.54% per trade — that is the size that survives this archive's multiple-testing correction, and it rises as the archive grows. So FAILED means “we found nothing above that size”, and never “it cannot possibly work”. The instrument is far more sensitive than that: on synthetic data, with a clean effect, it separates from 0.69% upwards. The distance between the two numbers is the price of a real market and the price of publishing many claims. The difference matters, and it is the rule of this house: the card confronts the claim, never the person who made it.

What this card does not measure

Every verdict holds for the conditions it was measured under. These are this card's — and outside them the result does not apply.

One market, one universe: Measured on 540 spot cryptocurrency pairs, delisted ones included. It says nothing about futures, equities or indices, nor about how the same technique behaves in another market.
One window of time, not every window: The measured period runs from 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-28. A market moves through regimes, and a technique can work in one and fail in another — the card measures the regimes that fit inside this window, not the ones still to come.
One cost structure: The cost charged is 0.10% per leg, in and out. Anyone paying more than that gets a worse result, and anyone paying less gets a better one — the verdict holds for this fee.
One exit rule: The trade was closed by: the technique itself (held until the opposite signal). The same entry measured with a different exit is a different strategy, and can earn a different verdict — it happens in this archive.
The number of trades is not the sample size: There are 49,643 trades, but only 29 independent market episodes: a single move fires the technique across dozens of assets at once, and counting those as separate observations inflates any result. It is the smaller number that governs the arithmetic. With 29 episodes, what the data supports is a range from -1.22% to +5.45% per trade — the published average is the centre of it, not the exact measurement.
Daily bars: Measured at the daily close. Nothing here measures what happens inside the day, and an intraday technique is not auditable with this data.

Numbers and reproducibility

The six controls

control	status	t	threshold	episodes
invariance	failed	—	—	—
costs	inconclusive	1.18	2.05	29
placebo	inconclusive	1.21	2.05	29
benchmark	passed	—	—	—
out of sample	passed	—	—	—
multiple testing	passed	—	—	—

invariance71% of the gross profit comes from 2482 trades (5% of the total) — lotteryconcentration: +71.18% of the profit sits in the top 5% of trades — with the dates shuffled, +49.84% (fails above +50.00%)
costsgross +2.116% · cost 0.200% · net +1.916% (t=1.18) · the range runs from -1.420% to +5.252%
placeboactual +1.916% · placebo -0.081% · excess +1.996% ± 1.651% (t=1.21 against a threshold of 2.05, 29 real groups, 2,482,150 sham dates, draw error ±0.032%)
benchmarktechnique +1.92% · buy and hold (same horizon) +0.73% · excess +1.18%
out of sampleasset half A: +1.784% (t=0.83, 29 episodes) · asset half B: +2.039% (t=1.08, 29 episodes) · liquid half (>= US$ 2,066,613/day): +2.352% (t=1.42, 29 episodes) · illiquid half: +1.416% (t=0.49, 28 episodes) · period 1/4 (2017-09-26 a 2022-04-28): +7.321% (t=2.47, 15 episodes) · period 2/4 (2022-04-29 a 2023-12-09): +0.702% (7 episodes — too small, does not count) · period 3/4 (2023-12-10 a 2025-05-01): +0.888% (5 episodes — too small, does not count) · period 4/4 (2025-05-02 a 2026-07-27): -1.246% (5 episodes — too small, does not count)
multiple testing1 variation(s) tested · t=1.18 across 29 episodes (equivalent to t=1.13) · p≈0.2604 · false positives expected by chance ≈ 0.26

Equity — outside the six controls, and here is why

The t of the trade series is invariant to bet size: 0.5%, 1% and 3% agree to the sixth decimal. Nothing here moves the verdict — it moves what the account would have lived through.

risking 1.0% per trade: ×3.12
worst drawdown from the peak: −57%
days below the previous peak: 1,786
signals refused for lack of capital: 65%
paths where the account halved (out of 12): 0

Reproducibility

period: 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-28
assets that traded: 540
variations tested before this one: 1
gross per trade: +2.12%
net per trade: +1.92%
exit rule: the technique itself (held until the opposite signal)
median duration bars: 3
mean duration bars: 14.3
max duration bars: 215
fee per leg: 0.001
episode days: 112
seed: 20260728
slope period: 40
volatility exit factor: 10.0
volatility exit window: 20
volatility exit reset: 0.25

Binance spot klines (delisted pairs included) · collected from 2026-07-27 23:31 to 2026-08-03 10:49 · 540 assets · 750,934 bars · 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-28

Hypothesis, filed before the result

The same exit, replacing rule 4 with the reset rule on p. 866: «we will be able to re-enter the market in the same direction as the trade that just exited, but only when volatility falls to ONE QUARTER of the volatility (the daily return) on the day of the exit. The concept is that, at one quarter of the volatility, the market is more or less back to normal». IT IS THE LARGEST IMPROVEMENT CLAIMED IN THE WHOLE CHAPTER, and by a margin nothing else comes close to — Table 20.3, 30-year bonds: net profit of 4,500 with no volatility exit, 12,968 with the exit, and 34,781 with the exit and re-entry, with the profit factor going from 1.02 to 1.07 and to 1.16. It is also the only layer in this family that GIVES exposure back instead of taking it away, and the source's justification is this corpus's own protocol: «trend systems need to capture as much as possible of the very good moves». Family-level prediction, recorded before measuring: (1) NONE survives the corpus-wide Benjamini-Hochberg — a filter that only decides WHEN NOT TO ENTER does not create an effect, it redistributes one; (2) the gravedigger will be the BENCHMARK, and not the placebo, and this is where this family parts from `fibonacci`: there the claim was that one specific level matters, and the placebo is what asks that; here the claim is that REMOVING TRADES IMPROVES THE RESULT, and what asks that is the control that compares against doing nothing — the protocol already records that a filter almost always cuts `n` without separating anything; (3) the LOW volatility filter and the HIGH one will give results IN THE SAME DIRECTION, despite the source claiming the low one is superior with two numbers and no error bar (information ratio 1.143 against 0.867) — if both improve, what improves is cutting trades, not picking a regime; (4) the RESET rule will have the family's best `t`, being the only layer that gives exposure back instead of taking it away, and even so it will not pass the BH; (5) the BASE will do better than any layer built on top of it.

filed on 2026-08-04, before the number existed

The original, as it was filed

A mesma saída, trocando a regra 4 pela regra de reset da p. 866: «vamos poder reentrar no mercado na mesma direção da operação que acabou de sair, mas apenas quando a volatilidade cair a UM QUARTO da volatilidade (o retorno diário) no dia da saída. O conceito é que, a um quarto da volatilidade, o mercado está mais ou menos de volta ao normal». ⚠️ É A MAIOR MELHORA ALEGADA DO CAPÍTULO INTEIRO, e por uma margem que nenhuma outra chega perto — Tabela 20.3, títulos de 30 anos: lucro líquido de 4.500 sem saída por volatilidade, 12.968 com a saída, e 34.781 com saída e reentrada, com o fator de lucro indo de 1,02 a 1,07 e a 1,16. ⚠️ É também a única camada desta família que DEVOLVE exposição em vez de tirar, e a justificativa da fonte é a do protocolo deste corpus: «sistemas de tendência precisam capturar o máximo possível dos movimentos muito bons». Previsão da família, registrada antes de medir: (1) NENHUMA sobrevive ao Benjamini-Hochberg do corpus — um filtro que só decide QUANDO NÃO ENTRAR não cria efeito, redistribui; (2) o coveiro será o BENCHMARK, e não o placebo, e é aqui que esta família se separa de `fibonacci`: lá a alegação era que um nível específico importa, e o placebo é quem pergunta isso; aqui a alegação é que REMOVER OPERAÇÕES MELHORA O RESULTADO, e quem pergunta isso é o controle que compara com não fazer nada — o protocolo já registra que filtro quase sempre corta `n` sem separar nada; (3) o filtro de volatilidade BAIXA e o de ALTA darão resultados NA MESMA DIREÇÃO, apesar de a fonte alegar superioridade do baixo com dois números e nenhuma barra de erro (razão de informação 1,143 contra 0,867) — se os dois melhoram, o que melhora é cortar operação, não escolher regime; (4) a regra de RESET terá o melhor `t` da família, por ser a única camada que devolve exposição em vez de tirar, e ainda assim não passará no BH; (5) a BASE irá melhor que qualquer camada sobre ela.

Quotations from the source were translated from the Portuguese record and back into English — they are not the author's exact words.

Pre-registration exists to keep prediction apart from rationalisation: written after the number, every hypothesis is right.

The same technique in the other market

The verdict held in the other market too, on independent data.

cryptoFAILED← this one
forexFAILEDopen that card

This claim has been audited once — there is no history to compare against.