Stochastic 14/3 (20/80)
A close at the extreme of the range shows exhaustion, and the crossing of the two lines confirms the turn — which avoids the RSI's mistake of signalling too early.
Measured in crypto — Binance spot · 540 pairs, delisted ones included · 0.2% per round trip
- ✓invariance
- ✗costs
- ✗placebo
- ✗benchmark
- ?out of sample
- ✓multiple testing
At its worst the account was worth 99% less than its own best previous moment, and it spent 3,219 days below that peak.
What was measured
How many of those trades actually count
What it paid, before any deductions
Why it did not pass — it died here · the broker's fee
What would have happened to the money
The account would not fit every signal
What this result does NOT say
- One market, one universe
- Measured on 540 spot cryptocurrency pairs, delisted ones included. It says nothing about futures, equities or indices, nor about how the same technique behaves in another market.
- One window of time, not every window
- The measured period runs from 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-28. A market moves through regimes, and a technique can work in one and fail in another — the card measures the regimes that fit inside this window, not the ones still to come.
- One cost structure
- The cost charged is 0.10% per leg, in and out. Anyone paying more than that gets a worse result, and anyone paying less gets a better one — the verdict holds for this fee.
- One exit rule
- The trade was closed by: the auditor's fixed horizon (10 bars). The same entry measured with a different exit is a different strategy, and can earn a different verdict — it happens in this archive.
- The number of trades is not the sample size
- There are 44,922 trades, but only 320 independent market episodes: a single move fires the technique across dozens of assets at once, and counting those as separate observations inflates any result. It is the smaller number that governs the arithmetic. With 320 episodes, what the data supports is a range from -2.12% to +0.46% per trade — the published average is the centre of it, not the exact measurement.
- Daily bars
- Measured at the daily close. Nothing here measures what happens inside the day, and an intraday technique is not auditable with this data.
Numbers and reproducibility
The six controls
| control | status | t | threshold | episodes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| invariance | passed | — | — | — |
| costs | failed | -1.58 | 1.97 | 320 |
| placebo | failed | -0.82 | 1.97 | 320 |
| benchmark | failed | — | — | — |
| out of sample | inconclusive | — | — | — |
| multiple testing | passed | — | — | — |
- invariance44922 signals across 750934 bars
- costsgross -0.834% · cost 0.200% · net -1.034% (t=-1.58)
- placeboactual -1.034% · placebo -0.442% · excess -0.591% ± 0.722% (t=-0.82 against a threshold of 1.97, 320 real groups, 2,246,100 sham dates, draw error ±0.014%)
- benchmarktechnique -1.03% · buy and hold (same horizon) +0.03% · excess -1.06%
- out of sampleasset half A: -0.811% (t=-1.21, 304 episodes) · asset half B: -1.258% (t=-1.86, 318 episodes) · liquid half (>= US$ 2,066,613/day): -0.979% (t=-1.44, 320 episodes) · illiquid half: -1.092% (t=-1.67, 294 episodes) · period 1/4 (2017-09-29 a 2022-05-11): -2.514% (t=-2.25, 167 episodes) · period 2/4 (2022-05-12 a 2023-12-23): +0.472% (t=0.58, 60 episodes) · period 3/4 (2023-12-24 a 2025-05-24): -1.333% (t=-0.97, 53 episodes) · period 4/4 (2025-05-25 a 2026-07-18): -0.779% (t=-0.70, 43 episodes)
- multiple testing1 variation(s) tested · t=-1.58 across 320 episodes (equivalent to t=-1.57) · p≈0.1166 · false positives expected by chance ≈ 0.12
Equity — outside the six controls, and here is why
The t of the trade series is invariant to bet size: 0.5%, 1% and 3% agree to the sixth decimal. Nothing here moves the verdict — it moves what the account would have lived through.
- risking 1.0% per trade
- ×0.01
- worst drawdown from the peak
- −99%
- days below the previous peak
- 3,219
- signals refused for lack of capital
- 58%
- paths where the account halved (out of 12)
- 12
Reproducibility
- period
- 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-28
- assets that traded
- 540
- variations tested before this one
- 1
- gross per trade
- −0.83%
- net per trade
- −1.03%
- exit rule
- the auditor's fixed horizon (10 bars)
- horizon bars
- 10
- fee per leg
- 0.001
- episode days
- 10
- period
- 14
- smoothing
- 3
- oversold
- 20.0
- overbought
- 80.0
Binance spot klines (delisted pairs included) · collected from 2026-07-27 23:31 to 2026-07-28 14:29 · 540 assets · 750,934 bars · 2017-08-17 to 2026-07-28
Seed not recorded: audits before 2026-07-29 used 20260728 by convention in the code, and the value is not in the record.
Hypothesis, filed before the result
The stochastic is another question about the same price, and the specific promise is that the crossing of the two lines avoids the RSI's premature signal. Specific, falsifiable prediction: its fate is the same as the RSI's and the Bands' — the problem was never the TIMING of the signal, it was that there is no reversal left to capture after costs. If the stochastic survives where both died, my reading of the mechanism is wrong.
the filing date is not in this audit's record
The original, as it was filed
O estocástico é outra pergunta sobre o mesmo preço, e a promessa específica é que o cruzamento das duas linhas evita o sinal precoce do RSI. Previsão específica e falsificável: o destino é o mesmo do RSI e das Bandas — o problema nunca foi o MOMENTO do sinal, foi não haver reversão a capturar depois do custo. Se o estocástico sobreviver onde os dois morreram, minha leitura do mecanismo está errada.
Pre-registration exists to keep prediction apart from rationalisation: written after the number, every hypothesis is right.
Earlier audits of the same technique
Each variation an author teaches enters as its own test, so that whatever might work in the strategy gets covered. The verdict held in all of them.